“Vietnam’s crude output averaged 8.6 million metric tons annually over the previous five years, and it is projected to decline to 5.8 million to 8.0 million tons annually during 2026-2030 as mature offshore fields are depleted, Reuters reported, citing Vietnam’s industry ministry.”
“However, not all of Vietnam’s oil and gas development problems stem from normal reserve depletion. Some challenges are purely geopolitical, including intervention and harassment by China that forces the country to import more geopolitically volatile and expensive oil and LNG from Middle Eastern suppliers.”
“Vietnam still sits on significant offshore reserves, with proven crude oil reserves of around 4.4 billion barrels as of 2025, according to Worldometer data. Vietnam also has abundant proved natural gas reserves, estimated at some 24.7 trillion cubic feet (TCF), third behind regional LNG exporters Indonesia and Malaysia.”
“However, over the last decade, Vietnam has repeatedly backed down under Chinese pressure within its own exclusive economic zone (EEZ), forcing the cancellation or suspension of major energy projects. The list is a geopolitical indictment that is hard to ignore…”
“In January, however, a new variable entered the geopolitical equation. U.S.-based oil explorer Murphy Oil discovered what consultancy Wood Mackenzie said could be the largest oil find in Southeast Asia in 20 years…”
https://asia.nikkei.com/opinion/it-s-time-for-vietnam-to-fend-off-china-over-its-new-oil-discovery