“It is not suggested that Beijing is interested in ‘re-integrating’ the Batanes Islands as part of Chinese territory as it is with Taiwan. However, while China’s foreign ministry has yet to officially endorse the new claims, their supposed origin in scholarly debate and legal rumination – questionable as they are – provides Beijing with the pretext necessary to move against Tokyo and Manila, and more importantly, isolate Taiwan.”
“Since the announcement of the delimitation talks, China has intensified its maritime patrols in Taiwan’s eastern seaboard. There could be several reasons for this. The most obvious reason could be so China can undermine negotiations by maintaining a ‘spoiling presence’ that prevents co-claimants from fully asserting their jurisdiction over the disputed area. A second possibility is that they establish Beijing’s own claims through sovereignty operations that showcase its ability to administer and enforce Chinese maritime law. A third is that this normalises the presence of Chinese vessels east of Taiwan and the Philippines. This effectively bypasses the First Island Chain and has implications on United States-Philippines containment strategies.”
“This dispute has wider implications for US–China relations – in particular in the event of a conflict over Taiwan. Any US-led intervention regarding Taiwan must be predicated on the assumption that allied forces can successfully contain the People’s Liberation Army behind the First Island Chain. Even if Manila were to decide against kinetic operations, the Batanes Islands still serve as a vital humanitarian corridor for the free movement of supplies and people – including the around 200,000 Filipino workers based in Taiwan that would need to be repatriated in the event of armed conflict. If China is left to operate in the Western Pacific unabated, the First Island Chain no longer serves its purpose.”