“In a maritime space where subsurface competition is intensifying — China has been expanding its survey activity in the Indian Ocean, with research vessel operations near the Bay of Bengal assessed as relevant to future PLA Navy submarine and anti-submarine operations, while Chinese survey ships have focused on the Ninetyeast Ridge, where the data collected is understood to be significant for enhancing Chinese submarine survivability in the Indian Ocean — shared hydrographic knowledge constitutes a meaningful form of maritime advantage. According to reports from early 2024, India had conducted approximately 100 foreign hydrographic surveys across the Indian Ocean region, including in Myanmar, and is deliberately expanding this footprint. This positions India as the preferred regional provider of hydrographic services at a time when China is actively offering itself as an alternative, making survey relationships with littoral partners an arena of influence that extends well beyond navigational charting.”
“The structural driver behind India’s engagement is the transformation of Myanmar’s coastline into a zone of strategic contestation. The Kyaukphyu deep-sea port project in Rakhine State, a centrepiece of the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor under the Belt and Road Initiative, is designed to provide China with direct access to the Indian Ocean, bypassing the Strait of Malacca through pipelines and road and rail links to Yunnan province. The port’s shareholding structure gives China’s CITIC Group a 70 percent stake under a 50-year lease, and military analysts have flagged its potential dual-use value for the PLA Navy. Separately, reported interest in developing facilities on the Coco Islands — under Myanmar’s jurisdiction and positioned to monitor the Ten Degree Channel — adds a surveillance dimension. These are elements of a broader regional order problem: who shapes the access conditions and security norms of the Bay of Bengal?”