“Simply put, Tajikistan is losing the international importance it once had, and China might now be the most dependable friend remaining for Rahmon and his country.”
“In April 1996, Rahmon and the leaders of China, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan met in Shanghai and formed the Shanghai Five, which, after the inclusion of Uzbekistan five years later, would become the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).”
“Security along Tajikistan’s border with Afghanistan is also in China’s interest. China shares an approximately 475-kilometer border with Tajikistan. Eastern Tajikistan is mountainous, remotely inhabited, and shares a long border with Afghanistan.”
“China is concerned about the ability of potential enemies to move from Afghanistan through eastern Tajikistan and enter China. That is why, less than ten years ago, China built a small, forward observation military post in eastern Tajikistan, not far from the Chinese border.”
“In 2025, China finally surpassed Russia to become Tajikistan’s leading trade partner, and Chinese-Tajik trade turnover in the first three months of 2026 increased by more than 52% compared to Q1 in 2025.”
“Now, the situation in Afghanistan is relatively stable. Many of the countries that once worried about the Taliban are conducting trade with the Taliban government, including Tajikistan’s Central Asian neighbors. These countries remain wary of the Taliban, but have significantly downgraded their view of a Taliban-ruled Afghanistan as representing a threat.”
“Chinese companies have built a road connecting the capital Dushanbe to the Chinese border, and work to improve and expand this road is currently underway. It is Tajikistan’s only substantial link along the Middle Corridor, and without Chinese help, it would be difficult, if not impossible to realize…”
https://timesca.com/rahmon-looks-to-china-as-tajikistans-options-narrow/