“Lithium is the clearest warning. Australia is the world’s number one lithium exporter, with more than 50% of global market share, and 97% of its exports destined for China. Yet China has been systematically investing in lithium processing across Africa and South America to reduce that reliance, even as its own domestic production now outstrips Australia’s. Albemarle’s lithium hydroxide refinery in Kwinana, Western Australia, closed in February 2026 after only four years, underscoring the cost and supply-chain advantages China has built elsewhere.”
“Iron ore tells the same story, even more sharply. Australia is the world’s number one iron ore producer, and China remains by far its dominant market. The US$23 billion Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, anchored by Chinese equity, delivered its first shipment to China in January 2026. Once fully ramped up by 2029, Guinea will become the world’s third-largest iron ore exporter, as part of China’s explicit strategy to reduce its reliance on Australian and Brazilian supply. The high-grade ore produced by Simandou is also suitable for green steel and aligned with China’s ambitions to decarbonise.”
“This broader shift is also where Australia’s debate often goes astray. Too much discussion about critical minerals is framed almost entirely through national security and military competition. Those concerns are real. But critical minerals are not just security assets. They are the base layer of industrial competitiveness in the zero-emissions economy.”