“The Middle East accounts for approximately 19 per cent of global exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), 29 per cent of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exports, 38 per cent of crude oil exports, and 19 per cent of exports of refined oil products. Moreover, one-third of global seaborne trade in fertilisers passes through the Hormuz Strait, making it a critical route for both energy and fertiliser exports from the region.”
“Cambodia and Myanmar are most vulnerable to the first wave (fertiliser trade) disruption as they are completely dependent on fertiliser imports, with negligible domestic production. Following these will be countries with limited domestic production capacity that falls well short of annual requirements. These include Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines where domestic fertiliser production can only meet 39 per cent, 24 per cent and 22 per cent of each country’s annual fertiliser use.”
“To assess ASEAN’s vulnerability, International Fertiliser Association data was compiled on the key fertiliser application periods in countries where data was available (Indonesia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam), for ASEAN’s five key crops (rice, maize, soybeans, sugarcane and cassava). March is a critical period for the rice sector as fertiliser is being applied across all these countries. The other vulnerable crops are maize (Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam), soybeans (Indonesia, Vietnam), and sugarcane (Philippines, Thailand).”
“Should the conflict extend to April, the vulnerable crops where fertilisers are being applied include rice (Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam and Myanmar), maize (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand), soybeans (Indonesia, Vietnam), sugarcane (Philippines), and cassava (Thailand). For all these countries, fertiliser disruptions (first wave) can reduce overall yields while higher fertiliser prices from LNG supply disruptions (second wave) may also prompt farmers to reduce application rates to cut losses.”