“Trade liberalization under the Trade in Goods Agreement (TIGA) of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) was intended to strengthen trade relations between China and the bloc’s member states, including Indonesia. Yet, one unforeseen development that was not anticipated by ASEAN during the negotiations and conclusion of the agreement – China’s extraordinary rise as an industrialized country – has now turned the TIGA into a driver of deepening trade imbalances.”
“Excluding oil and gas, Indonesia has run trade deficits with China since 2008. That year the deficit stood at $7.2 billion, rising to $8.1 billion in 2012 and $18.7 billion in 2019. The gap narrowed to $3.6 billion in 2022, turned into a tiny surplus of $0.13 billion in 2023, but then returned to deficits of $11.4 billion in 2024 and $22.1 billion in 2025. Indonesia’s exports to China grew 13.6 percent from 2024 to $64.8 billion last year, while imports surged 25.7 percent to $86.9 billion.”
“Indonesia’s exports to China are concentrated in natural resources and early-stage downstream products. Higher value-added manufacturing products are absent from the top ten export items. In 2024, 68 percent of Indonesia’s exports were made up of products related to nickel (ferro-nickel, nickel oxide, and mattes), coals (lignite and bituminous), copper ores and concentrate, and palm oil. Imports from China were much more diversified. The top ten import categories – products related to machinery and equipment, electronics, and motor vehicles – accounted for only 14 percent of the total, with no single product reaching a 3 percent share.”
https://thediplomat.com/2026/02/16-years-on-acfta-widens-indonesia-china-trade-imbalance/