“Myanmar accounted for nearly two-thirds of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) Rare Earth Elements (REEs) imports from 2017 to 2024 (ISP-Myanmar, March 28, 2025). Ethnic rebel groups in Myanmar’s Shan and Kachin states, which control most of these REE mining sites, have become increasingly dependent on revenues generated from leasing and facilitating Chinese rare-earth imports (The Irrawaddy, June 3, 2025; see Terrorism Monitor, December 4, 2025)…”
“During the first half of 2025, the PRC sent warning letters, conducted military drills, and suspended trade with the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA) after it defied the PRC’s proposal to cease hostilities against the military junta (The Irrawaddy, May 5; June 13, 2025). As a result, the TNLA was forced to accept a ceasefire and return two key townships to the Junta forces in late October 2025, demonstrating the PRC’s leverage over Myanmar’s rebel groups (Narinjara News, October 30, 2025). In April 2025, Beijing also forced the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) to transfer control of the strategically significant city of Lashio, housing the Junta’s Northeastern Regional Military Command, which was taken by the MNDAA in a hard-fought offensive (The Irrawaddy, July 29, 2024; RFA, April 16, 2025). The UWSA—considered the most powerful armed rebel group in Myanmar—announced that it will stop arming anti-Junta rebels, explicitly noting a direct warning from Beijing to comply (The Irrawaddy, August 21, 2025). The NDAA also assured the Junta, possibly under Chinese pressure, that its territories do not house any anti-Junta rebels (The Irrawaddy, May 27, 2025).”
“In September 2025, India entered into talks with the KIA to secure access to the rare-earth mineral-rich belt controlled by the armed group (Mining.com, September 11, 2025). State-owned miner Indian Rare Earth Limited (IREL) and private firm Midwest Advanced Materials—both of which receive government investment to commercialize the manufacture of rare-earth magnets—are involved in the discussions (TDS, September 10, 2025). This development was made public just 10 days after Indian Prime Minister Nahendra Modi held talks with Myanmar’s Junta chief Ming Aung Hlaing on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit in the PRC (CNI, August 31, 2025).”
https://jamestown.org/prc-and-india-vie-for-influence-on-rebel-militias-in-myanmar/