For a partnership purportedly centered on economic cooperation, the deal oddly places political alignment at the fore. In the Action Plan, which serves as the overarching framework for the deal, adherence to the One China policy is explicitly mentioned as ‘a cornerstone of the bilateral relationship.’ This follows China’s broader campaign to win over diplomatic recognition from all Pacific Island nations. In the past few years, three nations in the region – the Solomon Islands, Nauru, and Kiribati – have switched to recognize Beijing after a generous increase in foreign aid.
Concerns that the partnership may facilitate military activity are not merely speculative. China’s 15th Five Year Plan (2026-2030) reaffirmed its commitment to military-civil fusion, explicitly linking technological development and scientific research to defense modernization. Indeed, the maritime research body named in the Action Plan for maritime cooperation, the Second Institute of Oceanography, has formal cooperation agreements with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).
Accordingly, China’s state-run enterprises have poured hefty investments into renovating airstrips, wharves, ports, and telecommunications towers. Although framed as efforts to ‘promote economic interests,’ many facilities have been designed or modified with latent military capabilities. In Vanuatu, for instance, the Luganville Wharf was expanded to accommodate warships, despite receiving few visits at the time from large commercial vessels.
The Cook Islands may now be confronting a similar playbook…