Japan must prepare for a post-American Indo-Pacific
“Japan’s options are limited by harsh realities. Demographic decline (the population will shrink an estimated 30% by 2070) limits military capacity. Geographic vulnerability means Japan needs allies to secure sea lanes. Economic integration makes decoupling from China prohibitively expensive. Historical memories mean regional states view Japanese military growth suspiciously.”
“Yet Japan retains advantages often underestimated. It will remain among the top 10 largest economies for decades to come with technological capabilities China needs. Its democratic credibility attracts partners seeking alternatives to authoritarian models. Development assistance networks and cultural influence provide soft-power tools. Most importantly, Japan’s institutional expertise, from the CPTPP to infrastructure standards, allows it to shape emerging rules.”
“The post-American order hasn’t arrived and Chinese hegemony isn’t inevitable. Comprehensive tools that measure power, such as the Lowy Institute Asia Power Index, show us that. What’s certain is that the comfortable assumptions of the past 75 years no longer hold. Japan’s choice isn’t whether to accept this reality but how to shape it.”
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/commentary/2025/08/28/japan/a-post-american-indo-pacific/
See also: Lowy Institute 2024 Asia Power Index Key Findings report