Preparing for the Silent Surge: Countering North Korea’s Gambit in a Dual Contingency
“Strategic planners across the Indo-Pacific must reckon with an increasingly plausible scenario: a dual contingency in which North Korea opportunistically launches a full-scale war against South Korea while China conducts military operations against Taiwan. Such a scenario, discussed in a recent Atlantic Council report, represents an acute test of U.S. extended deterrence and allied defense posture in the region.”
“North Korea’s SOF [Special Operations Force] —estimated at over 200,000 troops—are a formidable unconventional force. Their operational doctrine emphasizes stealth, rapid infiltration, and psychological effect over brute force. Their mission set is extensive: sabotage of civilian infrastructure, disruption of airbase and seaport operations, insertion into urban centers to spread panic, and targeted assassination or abduction of political and military leaders.”
“North Korean special operations forces are also gaining valuable experience in realistic, modern scenarios. In late 2024, North Korea deployed thousands of military personnel to support Russia in its war against Ukraine. Special operations units such as the Storm Corps operated under Russian command and in Russian uniforms, integrated into Russian brigades, and have engaged in frontline combat during the Kursk offensive—receiving a crash course on modern hybrid warfare in real combat conditions, at the cost of thousands of lives.”
Source: Irregular Warfare Initiative
See also: ‘North Korea’s Kim says stronger special operation force is important, state media reports’