Why Vietnam’s Demographic Decline Will Reinforce Its Non-Aligned Foreign Policy
“Demographic decline is causing multiple headaches for Vietnamese policymakers. According to the latest statistics, Vietnam’s births per woman in 2024 declined to 1.91 from 1.96 in 2023, which is slightly below the replacement rate of 2.1. Vietnam’s population is aging rapidly. The number of people over the age of 60 increased from 11.4 million in 2019 to 14.2 million in 2024 out of a population of approximately 100 million. This cohort is projected to reach 18 million in 2030.”
“Besides the clear impact on socio-economic development goals, Vietnam’s declining demography also matters to its foreign policy. An aging population means that the country will have to divert more resources to social welfare. It also means that the military will count fewer soldiers among its ranks and have less funds for military modernization. Declining manpower will be one of the key factors nudging Hanoi away from costly military engagements, because the country cannot afford to lose its pool of young people. As seen in the Russia-Ukraine War, Ukraine’s birth rate declined from 21,000-23,000 children per month pre-war to 16,000 children since the Russian invasion in 2022. This declining birth rate will therefore further reinforce Vietnam’s non-aligned foreign policy, which is based on the principle of no military alliances, no siding with one country against another, no foreign military bases, and no using force or threatening to use force in international relations.”