A studiously ignored problem: Force projected from Australia must go through Indonesia
“Without reliable passage through Southeast Asia, and Indonesia in particular, deterrence risks being operationally constrained, even where significant capability investments have been made. Heavy basing in Guam or northern Australia cannot offset gaps in force mobility across Southeast Asia, notably through strategic corridors such as the Sunda, Lombok and Makassar Straits. As regional tensions increase, it is this political gap, not a military one, that threatens the coherence of allied deterrence strategy.”
“After the AUKUS security partnership was announced, Indonesian member of parliament Tubagus Hassanudin said the sea lanes ‘cannot be used for activities related to war or preparation of war or non-peaceful activities.’ ”
“Even if a formal closure of the sea lanes would breach international law, allies cannot count on Jakarta adhering strictly to UNCLOS if it feels under pressure—for example, if it perceives its neutrality or sovereignty is threatened. Political alignment remains critical alongside legal rights.”
Source: The Strategist – ASPI