The Malacca Dilemma: China’s Achilles’ Heel
“China is the world’s largest energy consumer, accounting for 25% of global energy consumption and 15% of all oil used globally. Its total primary energy demand surged from 1,800 Mtoe in 2000 to over 4,500 Mtoe [Million tons of oil equivalent] in 2020. Since 2000, China’s oil consumption has quadrupled—from 3.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) to over 15 mb/d in 2025. In parallel, China has become the world’s second-largest consumer of LNG (maritime-supplied gas), accounting for 16% of global LNG demand.”
“Nearly all maritime energy imports pass through a single strategic chokepoint: the Strait of Malacca. All of China’s energy sea lines of communication (SLOCs) converge through this strait. Each year, $3.5 trillion worth of trade—equivalent to one-third of global GDP—passes through the Strait of Malacca, including two-thirds of China’s total trade volume, over 83% of its oil imports, and approximately 16 mb/d of oil and 3.2 mb/d of LNG. Roughly 6.4 billion deadweight tons (dwt) of cargo pass through the strait annually, with about 10 vessels entering or exiting every hour. Most of these shipments consist of fossil fuels from the Middle East and Africa.”
“Although China currently receives about 3.7 mb/d of oil through overland pipelines and plans to expand capacity to 9 mb/d, this still falls far short of covering the nearly 15 mb/d it consumes. In the short term, China’s dependence on the Strait of Malacca—and on maritime oil imports more broadly—is set to deepen.”
Source: Modern Diplomacy