Myanmar’s Escalating Crisis: A Year in Review and the Road Ahead
“The AA [Arakan Army] consolidated control over approximately 88% of Rakhine State, capturing the Western Regional Command and three military operational commands. Similarly, the KIA overran more than 200 military bases and secured 14 towns in Kachin State. Almost all of northern Shan State is now under the control of the [ethic armed organisations] TNLA, MNDAA or UWSA. These groups have fortified their military positions, creating bases from which resistance can launch operations in nearby areas, and consolidated local governance structures.”
“China’s increasing involvement in Myanmar poses significant risks for Beijing’s long-term strategic interests. If China doubles down on its support for the junta to prevent its collapse, it will fuel growing anti-China sentiment among the Myanmar public and resistance forces. Protests against China’s backing of the regime have already intensified, both domestically and among diaspora communities. Infrastructure projects tied to Chinese interests are becoming increasingly vulnerable, and Beijing’s continued pressure on EAOs to negotiate with the military is unlikely to yield results.”
Read the full article: United States Institute of Peace